Farmers reduce their willingness to reduce their cotton planting

Dezhou City was affected by the rainy weather in 2011. The quality of cotton declined and its output decreased. Since the listing of new cotton in September, the cotton price has been low, the income of cotton farmers has decreased, and the enthusiasm of cotton has declined. It is expected that the cotton area in Dezhou will decrease by more than 20% this year.

Reduced yield per area

Dezhou City is one of the important cotton producing areas in China, with an annual cotton planting area of ​​200 to 3 million mu. In recent years, due to the time-consuming and low-yielding cultivation of cotton, the area of ​​cotton has been reduced year by year, with 2.9 million mu in 2008, 2.3 million mu in 2009, and 1.55 million mu in 2010. In 2011, when cotton prices were higher in the previous year, The area is only 1.63 million mu. The area of ​​cotton fields has dropped from about 25% of the province in the previous years to about 14%. For many years, the summer flood season in Dezhou has generally occurred in late July and early August. Cotton bolling usually starts in late August. The cotton season has little effect on cotton boll opening, and cotton quality is better. In the middle and late August of 2010, there were over 20 consecutive days of rainy weather in Dezhou, which had a major impact on cotton quality. In the middle of September 2011, there was another week of rainy weather. At this time, the cotton in the lower part had opened up and the middle bolls had cracked. Even the rainy weather had a greater impact on the quality and yield of the seed cotton. The yield per unit fell, and the average yield of seed cotton was only about 235 kg. , 25 kg less than the normal year, a decrease of about 10%.

Low grade price decline

The rainy weather in mid-September 2011 had a major impact on the quality of cotton, and some cotton bollworms changed the quality of cotton. As of the end of December, a total of 68 cotton companies in the city participated in the fair test of lint cotton, with a public inspection volume of 77,189 tons, accounting for 32.7% of the province's total public inspections. The results of the public inspection showed that the third grade cotton accounted for 9.01%, the fourth grade cotton accounted for 71.76%, and the fifth grade cotton accounted for 17.11%. In the normal years, the tertiary cotton in Dezhou can account for about 60%. In 2011, the cotton grade in Dezhou City was significantly lower than the normal year. The proportion of Grade 3 cotton was significantly lower, and the proportion of Grade 4 and Grade 5 cotton was higher than normal years.

It is understood that in September and October 2010, cotton prices continued to rise sharply. At the end of October and early November, the purchase price of seed cotton reached the historical highest price of 14.4 yuan/kg. Since the new cotton was listed in September 2011, the cotton price has been low. The purchase price of the four-grade seed cotton has been between 7.2 yuan/kg and 9 yuan/kg (clothing points of 38%). The average purchase price is around 7.6 yuan/kg. Compared with the highest price in the previous year, it fell by nearly half. Farmers complained that the progress of the sale was slow. As of the Spring Festival, the progress of the sale was only about 50%. Cotton farmers still had a large amount of cotton.

The main reasons for the low price of cotton in 2011 were as follows: First, global cotton production reached a record high of 26.8 million tons, while the demand was stable and declined, at around 24.2 million tons, oversupply, and the price of cotton fell sharply lower than domestic cotton. price. The second is the domestic cotton harvest, the demand has decreased slightly compared to the previous year, and the supply and demand gap has narrowed. Third, the European and American markets are in recession, the demand for cotton textiles has been reduced, domestic textile companies have reduced their foreign trade orders, production and operation are difficult, and cotton yarn prices are difficult to increase. Fourth, domestic labor costs and raw material costs have risen. The cost of cotton textiles has risen and international competitiveness has declined. Foreign trade orders have shifted to some low-cost countries in Southeast Asia. Fifth, since the listing of new cotton in 2011, the price of cottonseeds has fallen sharply, ranging from 1.7 yuan/kg to 2.6 yuan/kg, averaging about 2 yuan/kg, down from the average price of 3.6 yuan/kg in the previous year. %. According to calculations, with the lint price unchanged, the price of cottonseed dropped by 0.1 yuan per kilogram, and the purchase price of seed cotton would be reduced by about 0.06 yuan per kilogram. That is to say, compared with the previous year, the cottonseed price resulted in the purchase price of seed cotton. Decline 1 yuan / kg or so.

Reduced cost gains

In 2011, the cotton planting area in Dezhou City decreased, the output decreased, the price fell, and the income of cotton farmers decreased. Cotton has a long production cycle, many links, low mechanized work rates, labor and labor environment. With the continuous increase in labor costs, labor costs for cotton production have increased year by year. According to statistics, the cost of cotton planting in Dezhou increased in 2011. The direct costs (including labor) of machine farming, seeds, fertilizers, and pesticides (excluding labor) reached 480 yuan/mu, and the land package fee averaged 450 yuan/mu. 1 yuan / kg rose to about 1.6 yuan / kg in 2011, cotton picking costs are about 380 yuan per mu. If the per mu production of seed cotton 235 kg, the average selling price of 7.6 yuan / kg calculation, the per mu output value of 1786 yuan, according to the farmers to plant their own land, their own cotton calculation, does not include labor costs, deduct the direct planting costs, mu gain 1306 yuan. If the rent is calculated according to the leased land and the people employed, the cost of the mu has reached about 1,310 yuan, and the mu gain is only 476 yuan. In other words, the annual income of 10 mu of cotton is 4760 yuan, and the annual income of 20 mu is less than 10,000 yuan. There are fine seed subsidies, grain subsidies, and comprehensive subsidies for agricultural resources. In 2011, the total subsidy was 98 yuan per mu. The government subsidies for seed cotton were small, and there was only a fine seed subsidy of 15 yuan per mu.

Cotton is affected by natural disasters. If there is continuous rain or flood disaster in August and September, the yield and quality of cotton will be greatly affected, and the yield will be reduced. However, the food crops have strong anti-spawning capacity, which will affect the output. In recent years, food has basically been mechanized from planting to harvesting, and labor has been greatly reduced. The time saved is spent working outside. The monthly income is a minimum of one or two thousand yuan, and the high one reaches three to four thousand yuan, which is far more than that of cotton. fast. According to the survey, due to the low price of cotton in 2011, many farmers said that they will not grow or grow less cotton this year. It is expected that the cotton area in Dezhou will decrease by more than 20% this year.