International spot gold rebounded strongly from the three-week low on Thursday (July 21), almost regaining yesterday's lost ground, with an intraday gain of nearly 1%, and the US market hit a high of $1330.86 per ounce. On Thursday, the European Central Bank announced that it will keep key interest rates unchanged, European stocks and the US dollar fell, and gold gained momentum. The US economic data released during the day was brilliant, but it had little effect on the upward trend of gold. The data shows that the number of jobless claims in the United States unexpectedly fell last week, down to the low level since April this year, which proves the strong performance of the current labor market; the monthly rate of existing home sales in the United States increased by 1.1% in June, and the annual rate rose to the highest in more than nine years. The monthly rate of leading indicators in the United States in June was better than the forecast, which was a two-month growth.
The US dollar continued to decline slightly on Thursday. As of press time, the US dollar index fell 0.09% to 97.01 points. US stocks ended a multi-day rise and fall on Thursday, the Dow fell 0.33% to 18,533.53 points; the S&P 500 fell 5.34% to 2,176.68 points; the Nasdaq fell 0.18% to 5,508.85 points. Crude oil fell, the US oil index fell 1.81% to $44.92 per barrel; the oil index fell 1.55% to $46.44 per barrel.
The rise in gold on Thursday is still supported by interest rate hike expectations. The European Central Bank said it will keep interest rates unchanged. Analysts expect the European Central Bank's September meeting to have more stimulus policies, and Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will also use "helicopter money" to stimulate the economy. Although the recently released US economic data is better than expected, given the current international economic situation and the US election in November, whether the Fed can raise interest rates before the end of the year is still suspense. Gold's strong rebound on Thursday showed investors' pursuit. In addition to economic factors, political risks are now increasingly affecting the gold market, including the Italian referendum and the US, France and Germany elections; Features are still a must in the portfolio.
US initial jobless claims fell to a low level in the labor market in April
According to a government report on Thursday (July 21), the number of US initial jobless claims fell unexpectedly last week, dropping to a low since April this year, proving the current strong performance of the labor market.
According to data released by the US Department of Labor (DOL), the number of initial jobless claims fell by 1,000 to 253,000 in the US on July 16th, and has remained below the 300,000 mark for 72 consecutive weeks, estimated at 265,000. The previous value was 254,000.
(The number of initial jobless claims in the United States, source: FX168 Financial Network)
More data shows that the average weekly jobless claims last week decreased by 1,250 to 257,750. The market believes that this data can better reflect the employment market conditions, because the fluctuation between weeks and weeks is removed.
The US Department of Labor announced that the number of initial jobless claims is the number of people who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time last week. The data is a good complement to the monthly employment report. When more people apply for unemployment benefits, it means employment is reduced, and vice versa. Investors can use the report to seek clues about economic growth, but the data is volatile.
Reuters commented on the US data at the beginning of the week, saying that the number of initial jobless claims fell unexpectedly to a low level since April this year, and has remained below the 300,000 mark for 72 consecutive weeks; although usually at this time of the year, The number of initial requests may rise as automakers idle their assembly lines for reorganization, but the data has not been affected enough to justify the current strong labor market.
US existing home sales in June increased by 1.1% monthly rate to the highest in more than 9 years
According to a recently released report, the growth rate of existing home sales in the United States unexpectedly hit a record high in more than nine years. The low interest rate on mortgage loans attracted buyers to buy houses. This is a good sign for the economy.
According to data released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) on Thursday (July 21), US existing home sales rose 1.1% in June, with an annual rate of 5.57 million, the highest since February 2007, estimated at 5.48 million. Household. In May, existing home sales were revised up to 1.5%, with an annual rate of 5.51 million.
(After the US seasonally adjusted monthly housing sales rate chart, source: FX168 financial network)
Existing home sales are a preliminary measure of the US residential market. The data includes sales and prices of second-hand homes across the United States and four regions. Housing types include single-family, condominiums and co-ops.
NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said that US mortgage rates fell to their lowest level since 2013, which may have attracted some first-time buyers to return to the market. First-time home buyers accounted for 33% of total sales in June, setting a new high in nearly four years. Recent home sales have become a bright spot in the US economy, showing that the Brexit storm has not affected the stable performance of the US economy.
US June Chamber of Commerce leading indicator rose 0.3% for 2 consecutive months of growth and better than estimated
The Conference Board released a report on Thursday (July 21) that the US monthly leading index rose by a better-than-expected monthly rate for two consecutive months.
The data showed that the US leading indicator rose by 0.3% in June to 123.7, which is an increase of 0.2%.
(US Conference Board leading indicator monthly rate, source: FX168 financial network)
The data also showed that the US monthly consensus index of the Conference Board in January increased by 0.3%, and the previous value was 0.3%.
In addition, the monthly rate of lagging indicators of the US Chamber of Commerce in January fell by 0.1%, and the previous value increased by 0.3%.
The leading indicator is to assess the future development of the US economy as a whole, including employment, manufacturing average weekly work, initial jobless claims, building permits, stock prices and yield curves. It is an important indicator of the steady growth of the US economy.
Outlook outlook
Naeem Aslam, principal analyst at ThinkMarkets, said that “the September meeting is more important and more QEs are expected to emerge.†Aslam believes that “the main factor affecting gold is still the Fed’s rate hike decision. Recent data has stimulated another Interest rate expectations are expected, interest rates may be higher, if the non-agricultural data next month is also very strong."
Bank of America Merrill Lynch: The market situation is reshaping two major positives and gold
Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML) commodities research director Francisco Blanch said in an interview on Wednesday (July 20) that the current Brexit and political risks are reshaping the market situation, interest rates will continue to be under pressure, and gold prices are also Will be supported by risk aversion. Blanch said, "British Brexit is an eye-opening thing because it is changing the market situation and putting interest rates under pressure, which may be beneficial to gold prices."
At the same time, Blanch pointed out that "the current political risks are also increasingly affecting the gold market, including the Italian referendum and the US, France and Germany elections." He said, "If you think of gold in the past, it tends to be more It is driven by the trend of commodity markets such as the US dollar and crude oil. Today, this is a brand new world."
In addition, Blanch emphasized that “current one-third of government bond yields are negative, which has begun to attract many people into the gold market. I define this as a portfolio of round-robin transactions.â€
Bank of America Merrill Lynch had previously predicted that due to the global crisis, and will not improve in a short time, it is expected that the price of gold will rise to the level of 1,500 US dollars per ounce by the end of this year.
The bank pointed out that the current uncertainty also implies that an accelerated rate hike cycle is unlikely, so global interest rates remain low, which in turn reduces the opportunity cost of holding interest-free assets, such as gold.
At 00:44 Beijing time, spot gold reported $133.40 per ounce, up $14.40, or 1.12%.
(Spot gold daily chart source: FX168 financial network)
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