It is expected that the future market for polyester staple fiber will be stable

With the rising cost of raw materials and the recovery of the downstream yarn market, the atmosphere of the polyester staple fiber market gradually improved, the trading volume increased, and the price of polyester staple fiber continued to rise.

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We believe that the current price of polyester staple fiber will increase under the influence of cost support and strong demand. However, in the future, the price of polyester staple fiber may not show a sharp rise or fall in 2010, and its linkage with cotton prices will weaken. Affected by its own fundamentals, the median price may be relatively high at 15,000 yuan/ton. The reason is as follows:

In the future, the price of cotton will rise at a high level, but it may decline. Due to the limitation of planting area, the annual output of international cotton will not be greatly improved, and it will stabilize at about 25 to 28 million tons in the future. While the global economy is slowly recovering, China’s imports have increased and demand for cotton has been strong. However, with the impact of new cotton listing, policy pressure, and slowdown in downstream textile growth, cotton prices may fall back, making polyester staple fiber prices under pressure.

The positioning of high-end textiles on cotton has weakened linkage with polyester staple fibers. The substitution effect of polyester and cotton only increased the demand for polyester by 7.1%. At the same time, with the upgrading of consumption, cotton will position high-end textiles, and the linkage between cotton and polyester staple fibers will weaken, and the high price gap between cotton and polyester staple fibers will exist for a long time.

The properties of the polyester staple fiber industry determine that polyester short-term prices will not sustain huge profits. The major equipment of staple fiber does not depend on imports. Domestic products can meet the requirements. The threshold of polyester staple fiber is low. At present, profitability is still acceptable. However, if the polyester industry continues to prosper, it may cause the original idle or new production capacity to be released.

In the future, the export growth of the textile industry may slow down. In 2010, the export growth rate of the textile industry was 28.4%. However, due to the stabilization of external demand, the continuous appreciation of ***, and the impact of rising raw material costs, it is expected that the textile industry's export growth rate will slow down in 2011, to a certain extent, it will make upstream polyester short The price of fiber is under pressure.

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